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Home PVN Update

PV UPDATE: Is U.S. Shale Prepared for the Fallout of a Trade War?

Matthew Johnson by Matthew Johnson
April 10, 2025
in PVN Update
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PV UPDATE: Is U.S. Shale Prepared for the Fallout of a Trade War?

Shale producers may be operating more efficiently than ever, but they’re doing so in an increasingly uncertain world. In our Monday Macro View**, we break down what Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count and Frac Job Count really show. Despite media noise around “managed decline,” the data shows something else entirely—shale is evolving, not retreating. Operators like ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental are doing more with less—scaling output through disciplined capital use, longer laterals, and advanced completion design. But  macro headwinds are mounting. We look at these developments in greater depth in our Market Sentiment Tracker*, which explores how a renewed wave of U.S. tariffs is destabilizing the global economic outlook. From fading consumer confidence in the U.S. to industrial stagnation in Europe and a crisis of investor trust in China, the global demand engine is stalling just as supply chains brace for impact. Another big question is the effect of trade policy on oil itself—a topic we explore in our FREE READ, which examines how falling prices, rising inventories, and weakness in Asian imports are colliding with tariff-driven cost pressure on U.S. oilfield services. Even though crude was exempt from the latest tariffs, the knock-on effects are already visible—and retaliation could still put energy flows in the crosshairs.

For deeper insights, real-time frac data, and forward-looking forecasts, explore how Primary Vision can power your strategy: Learn more about a subscription here or email us directly: info@primaryvision.co

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