OPEC+ is ramping up supply again—adding over 400,000 barrels per day each month into July—and the market expects U.S. shale to follow. But our Monday Macro View tells a different story. Our Frac Spread Count has fallen to 186, with no signs of a turnaround, while Frac Job Count remains steady near 220. That mismatch isn’t just a data quirk. It signals a strategic shift: operators are conserving horsepower, stretching equipment, and resisting the urge to chase volumes. Even as the EIA projects output climbing to 13.5 million barrels per day by 2026, the immediate trend shows no summer push. Instead, we’re watching a wait-and-see approach—where shale’s ability to respond still exists, but the will depends on price recovery and stronger margins.
The macro picture isn’t offering much encouragement. Our Market Sentiment Tracker this week highlights an economy that’s drifting sideways. In the U.S., labor remains tight but forward indicators are cracking—factory orders are down, services are slipping, and job cuts are rising. Europe cut rates, but it’s easing into a slowdown, not out of one. China’s numbers still look export-heavy and domestically weak. The policy response across all three remains cautious or constrained. Last week we noted the global economy was fragile—this week, it looks tired. World Bank’s Global Economic Prospect Reports also corroborate our findings.
Our Key Takeaways, focused on SLB and NOV, provides further proof. NOV’s Q1 backlog rose 12% year-over-year, and its book-to-bill ratio held firm at 1.22x—signs of stability—but its forward guidance flagged 5%–8% revenue declines in its Energy Products & Services segment, citing tariff risks and North American weakness. SLB, meanwhile, is leaning on international markets that now make up 80% of its revenue. It expects flat sequential revenue in Q2 and just a 50–100 basis point improvement in EBITDA margin, unless macro conditions improve. Put simply, the upstream sector is facing many headwinds moving forward.
We will continue to update our readers regarding the latest developments in this regard. Stay ahead with real-time insights, operator-level data, and the kind of analysis only Primary Vision can provide. Let us help you see what’s next!
Learn more about a subscription here or email us directly: info@primaryvision.co
*Premium Subscribers
**Enterprise Subscribers
