This week’s Monday Macro View investigates various perceptions regarding U.S. shale. The EIA and Dallas Fed see a slowdown: fewer completions, margin pressure, and softer production forecasts. But field data tells from Primary Vision tells a different story. Our Frac Job Count remains steady near 210–230, even as Frac Spread Count drops. Operators are optimizing their operations. From ProFrac’s electric fleets to Nabors’ high-spec rigs and LNG-linked programs, service firms are staying nimble, not idle. The market isn’t collapsing; it’s conserving capacity, waiting for price or policy to justify the next move.
Market Sentiment Tracker zooms out to the trade regime shaping that wait. Quantitative restrictions—export bans, quotas, and licenses—now impact $8T of global trade, eclipsing tariffs in strategic weight. The U.S. leads with 195 QRs since 2017, China follows with 181. These are structural changes that have started to show up: Germany’s exports are down, China’s CPI is flat, and U.S. retail sentiment is wobbling under tariff pressure.The quantitative restrictions are here to stay and that dims the outlook for global trade in the second half of 2025.
Key takeaway: U.S. has proven to be more resilient than we initially thought. The trend of fragmentation in global economy seems to persist. The demand dynamics, therefore, seems murky for oil markets in the shorter run. However, it doesn’t mean the we will start to see oil supply falling.
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