The key points discussed in the video transcript are as follows:

- The expectation of a quarter-point raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in June, followed by a period of stability at around 5.25% for the next 12 months.
- The negative trend in the leading economic index from the conference board, indicating a decline of 0.6% in April and an 8% decline year-on-year, suggesting a potential recession.
- The softness in leading indicators and the release of data from Philly and Empire Today, which show a downward trend.
- Concerns about commercial real estate being the likely source of a credit event, with rising fear and concerns about U.S. shadow banking.
- The possibility of U.S. Treasury being downgraded, which is seen as a concerning factor.
- The update on target rate probabilities for the June 14th meeting, with a 32% chance of a rate hike and a 68% chance of no hike, indicating a shift towards a potential rate hike.
- The pressure points in global commodities and global manufacturing PMI, with downward trends in new orders.
- The impact of these pressure points on commodity currencies and the nominal traded trade-weighted USD.
- Concerns about CPI components, with over 75% of purchased components still being over 4% in terms of inflation, indicating a significant issue.

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