August 28th, 2020
In this video, the speaker discusses the concept of cautious optimism for the year 2023. They mention that while some countries are seeing slight improvements in economic numbers, it does not necessarily mean that things are getting better, but rather that they are not getting worse as fast as before. The speaker then focuses on the reopening of the Chinese economy and how it will impact the global market sentiment. They mention that the recovery of the Chinese economy will determine the shape of the recovery (L-shaped, U-shaped, or V-shaped). The speaker also refers to recent statistics and research articles that suggest a potential lack of a sharp rebound in the Chinese economy. They discuss the views of Morgan Stanley, the low economic growth in China, and the expectation that international flights from China will resume, leading to increased consumption. However, they caution that the road to recovery will be bumpy and long, citing the traffic congestion engine index in China as an example.
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