Primary Vision Network on YouTube

August 28th, 2020


The video transcript discusses the recent developments in the energy industry, specifically focusing on the OPEC+ production cuts and their impact on oil prices and storage levels. The main topics covered include:

1. Reduction in production: The transcript mentions that there has been an average reduction of about 1.7 million barrels per day in oil production. The question arises whether this reduction is coming from current production levels or quota levels.

2. Iraq's production cut: It is highlighted that Iraq is not required to cut its production as it is already producing below its pledged cut. The Kurdistan situation is mentioned as an example where production was offline, but the cut agreed upon was lower than the actual production reduction.

3. Key indicators to watch: The transcript suggests monitoring three key indicators to understand the impact of the production cuts: exports, floating storage, and OSPs (Official Selling Prices) outside the Middle East, particularly in West Africa.

4. Bullish and bearish scenarios: The transcript discusses the bullish and bearish setups in the market. The bullish setup aims to support prices around $70-$75 per barrel, while the bearish setup is driven by diminishing demand and the need to protect prices and maintain storage levels.

5. Trading range and goals: The expected trading range for Brent crude oil is mentioned to be around $82-$87 per barrel, with an average target of $85 per barrel.

6. Market reactions and warning signs: The transcript mentions that it will take time for the market to digest the production cuts. It also highlights some warning signs, such as increased demand in the U.S. but flashed warning signs from Singapore and crack spreads, which may impact refiners.

7. Impact on refiners and margins: The transcript discusses how increasing OSPs for light crude going into Asia may hurt refiners' margins and lead to economic run cuts. Refinery margins are expected to shrink, affecting demand.

8. Competition in the market: The transcript mentions the struggle for countries to compete in the market without buying the cheapest available crude. It discusses the availability of West African crude, which is priced higher than Russian crude, making it challenging for countries facing economic slowdowns to choose the most cost-effective option.

9. Saudi Arabia's actions: The transcript mentions that Saudi Arabia is aware of the market dynamics and cuts its production accordingly. It also mentions Russia's commitment to reducing production by 500,000 barrels per day.

#OPEC #productioncuts #oilprices #energyindustry #storagelevels #exports #floatingstorage #OSPs #refiners #marketcompetition

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