The claim that U.S. drillers can still produce oil at $50 per barrel is a bold one, and while it might have held some weight in the past, a closer look at Frac Spread Count (FSC) trends, historical breakevens, and cost inflation paints a different picture. Primary Vision’s FSC data from 2014 to 2025 provides a clear-cut reality check: every time oil prices have dipped near $50, completion activity has significantly contracted. The shale sector isn’t immune to price cycles, and despite efficiency gains, there’s a limit to how low breakevens can go. The question isn’t just “Can oil still be produced at $50?” but rather, “Can production be sustained at $50 without a steep drop in completions?” That’s where the data tells a different story.