Last week we talked about cracks forming beneath the surface of oilfield activity. This week, we went deeper. Using our Frac Job Count and Frac Spread Count, our Monday Macro View* focuses on the diverging signals in U.S. shale. Completions are holding up, but frac spreads have dropped again—now down to 186. That tension points to a system that’s still working but the future direction seems uncertain. Operators are pushing through jobs while margins last, even as oil prices settle lower and capital guidance starts to bend. We’re seeing the early signs of a slowdown—not a collapse, but a quiet retreat that could accelerate as the summer wears on.
The Market Sentiment Tracker* picks up on that same fragility at a global scale. In the U.S., consumer strain is no longer subtle—credit card delinquencies are now at a 14-year high, home sales are sliding, and household savings have been drained. Europe is improving slightly on the industrial front, but services and consumption remain soft. And China, while still posting strong numbers, is seeing a worrying drop in foreign direct investment. It’s a week where no major economy is clearly gaining ground—just moving differently through a fragile phase.
Our Key Takeaways evaluate recent tone by service providers that connects perfectly well with the Monday Macro View. RPC is choosing not* to add new frac spreads this year, even as it adds wireline depth with the Pintail acquisition. Their focus is clear: stay lean, keep balance sheets clean, and avoid over-committing in a soft market. TechnipFMC’s story mirrors* that—offshore wins are keeping its outlook positive, but U.S. onshore exposure is being managed carefully, especially as tariffs and price risks loom. Together, they reflect a shift away from volume growth and toward positioning. That’s the real story this week: a significant recalibration in the oil industry.
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