The previous week has been eventful for oil prices. Despite a dramatic escalation in the Iran–Israel conflict, crude markets remain subdued. Brent traded within a narrow band in the low $80s, with WTI hovering around $77–78. As I post this article prices have actually started to come down with Brent at $73 and WTI at $70. This price resilience in the face of geopolitical risk might seem counterintuitive, but it is not unanticipated. As we noted in our last Monday Macro View, the recent run-up in prices had more to do with five structural and geopolitical forces—OPEC+ underperformance, falling inventories, U.S.–Iran diplomatic failure, tariff shifts, and speculative repricing—than the direct impact of Middle East instability. The latest developments reinforce that assessment.
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