Monday Macro View: What’s Keeping Shale Production Steady?

It is Monday again and while thinking what exactly to share with our readers, I decided to build up on our previous topic ie forecasts vs field - what exactly is happening in U.S. oil industry and more specifically with U.S. oil production. Frac spreads are falling, but U.S. oil production is holding up. That might sound like a contradiction, but the data tells a more interesting story. Even as fewer frac fleets are working, completions remain steady, crews are staying busy, and overall output—especially from the Permian—is actually ticking higher. What’s behind this disconnect? Operators are getting more out of fewer resources, thanks to better efficiency and a steady drawdown of their DUC (drilled but uncompleted) inventory. The real question is: how long can this last?

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From mid-March to mid-July, the national frac spread count (FSC) declined sharply—down 18% from 212 to 174, according to Primary Vision. But interestingly, Permian well completions barely flinched, slipping just 3% over that same period (from 460 to 445, based on EIA data). That divergence says a lot about the evolving dynamics in the shale patch. Despite fewer active frac crews, production is holding steady—at least for now.

The small drop in completions amid a much larger frac spread pullback points to improved operational efficiency or a heavier drawdown from the DUC inventory. While DUC depletion is not new, the scale at which it might be masking the impact of declining service intensity is worth noting. This is further supported by the consistency in new wells drilled per rig in the Permian—holding steady at 1.5 to 1.6 during the same timeframe—suggesting that each rig is either drilling more efficiently or activity is being selectively concentrated in higher-return zones. Additionally, while active rigs in the Permian declined from 301 in March to 273 by June (a 9% drop), the completion count only dipped by 15 wells, reinforcing the idea that well completion activity is decoupling from rig and frac counts. In other words, fewer tools in the field are doing more.

This operational efficiency is now reflected in production figures. EIA’s latest data shows that despite fewer rigs and spreads, U.S. tight oil output is still edging higher. From March to June, Permian production rose from 5.65 to 5.70 million barrels per day, while national tight oil volumes climbed from 9.01 to 9.16 million barrels per day. That growth, modest as it is, stands in stark contrast to the drop in upstream activity. The only way this adds up is if operators are maintaining strong completion volumes—either by drawing down their DUC inventory or increasing output per crew. In either case, production resilience is being engineered, not organically sustained.

Primary Vision’s Frac Job Count reinforces this narrative. Even as the frac spread count fell sharply, FJC remained relatively flat through the first half of 2025. This indicates that active frac crews are still putting in work—moving faster, completing more wells per job, or working longer hours. Much of this effort is concentrated in the Permian, where capital is being prioritized and operational efficiencies are strongest. This explains why completions are holding and production remains stable despite a shrinking service footprint.

In contrast, other basins are seeing more pronounced impacts. Eagle Ford well completions dropped from 133 in March to 99 in June, and new wells drilled also fell from 106 to 99—despite relatively stable rig counts. This points to a reallocation of capital away from non-core plays in favor of maximizing efficiency and returns in the Permian, which continues to function as the anchor of U.S. shale output.

This has been one of the key questions I’ve been digging into for a while: how can U.S. oil production remain steady—even rise—while frac spread counts and rig activity fall? Based on what we’ve seen so far, the answer lies in a mix of steady frac job activity, improved efficiency, and a drawdown of DUCs, particularly in the Permian. That helps explain the current mismatch, but it doesn’t mean the trend is sustainable forever.

I’ll be diving deeper into this topic in future pieces, with a closer look at specific basins and operator behavior. For now, though, the data points to one thing: fewer spreads and rigs don’t automatically mean lower production—at least not yet.