The global economy in July 2025 is entering a new and more fragile phase. The brief post-pandemic recovery has faded, and what’s emerging is a landscape shaped by policy friction, slowing private demand, and uneven resilience across regions. The United States is preparing for a new round of tariffs that could redraw trade flows just as wage growth softens and consumption shows early signs of fatigue. Europe, already weighed down by structural industrial weakness, is bracing for external shocks that threaten its tentative recovery. And in China, state-led stabilization efforts are struggling to offset weakening confidence and fading export momentum. It’s no longer a question of whether the global cycle is slowing—but how disorderly the transition will be.
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