The energy markets have remained volatile but within a fairly tight band over the last few weeks. Demand issues began to outweigh the geopolitical risks that have plagued the market since Oct 7th of last year. The broader range we’ve outlined is $82-$92, but we believe that May will see $83-$87 with Brent averaging around $84/$85. There has been some additional supply with Russia producing above their target, which we fully expected to happen. The demand side of the equation will be the biggest factor going forward as the global economy stays constrained. On the geopolitical front, Israel has already taken control of the Rafah border between Gaza and Egypt for the first time since 2005. This was quickly followed by dozens of sorties run by the Israelis in the region.
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