The crude markets are struggling to find a bid as demand issues remain front and center as rumors swirl regarding the OPEC+ voluntary cuts. There are some expectations that OPEC+ will announce a gradual easing of the cuts, but this is still not our base case. One of the things that OPEC loves to do is float a rumor to see how the market reacts. These “tests” are lovingly called tape bombs, but as we’ve said from day one, in order for OPEC+ to bring back volume- they will have to accept a sizeable decline in pricing. A full return would result in a price decline of $10+ with even a gradual return bringing the market down by $5-$7 at a minimum. OPEC+ decided to delay any potential cuts by two months, but as I’ve stated from the beginning of this year: all cuts will remain in place till at least Q1’25. The brent market fell below $73, which was our extended downside. We expect to see a bounce because crude ALWAYS overacts to the upside and downside of the pricing structure. The physical market doesn’t support a continued down move, and we should see a gradual move back to about $77. We believe that as the market prices in the OPEC+ extension pricing will recover a bit, but the biggest overhang remains demand. The demand side of the equation has deteriorated further, and we will move down our expectations for Sept to $74-$80 with the upper band no longer likely. As we progress through Oct- Dec, we will likely see more deterioration as refiners enter turn around season sooner putting us at about $73-$78.