U.S. oil production has long been a topic of intense debate. We’ve heard the bullish calls—some even expecting U.S. production to continue growing for years to come. And yet, the reality on the ground is more complex. As we sit today, the data suggests U.S. oil production is near its peak, but the story is far from straightforward. According to James Davis at FGE, production is expected to max out at around 14-14.2 million barrels per day. We aren’t there yet. In fact, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts U.S. production to average 13.25 million barrels per day in 2024, with a slight bump to 13.67 million barrels per day in 2025.