As we head into the weekend, Brent futures fell to just below $73 and the bottom of our range. We expected to see a sizeable drop once the concerns of an Israeli retaliatory attack faded a bit. Israel will still likely respond in the next seven days or so, but they had to wait for some equipment to get into place- THAAD being one of them. While the geopolitical theater remains, the physical market has weakened further with pricing showing additional softness in demand. This also comes at a time when Libya is back to full exports and CPC returned from maintenance. These shifts in the market will put pressure on U.S. exports- mainly distillate and crude. We expect to see crude exports averaging between 3.7-3.8M barrels a day and distillate shifting to around 1M barrels a day with downside to about 800k barrels.