Turkey’s recent decision to explore oil and gas off Somalia’s coast is a strategic maneuver that ties into its larger ambitions in the energy sector and geopolitical sphere. Turkey’s state-owned energy company, TPAO, has dispatched its exploration vessel to Somalia’s offshore blocks, a move that underscores Turkey’s growing urgency to secure new energy sources. Given that Turkey is a net energy importer, with around 90% of its oil and natural gas coming from abroad, the need to diversify its energy supply has become critical. The country’s rising energy consumption—driven by economic growth and an expanding population—only intensifies this urgency.
The rationale behind Turkey’s push into Somalia’s waters is straightforward: it’s a region with untapped potential. Geo-seismic surveys estimate that Somalia could hold around 30 billion barrels of oil reserves, a figure that, if even partially realized, would dramatically change the energy landscape in the Horn of Africa. This isn’t the first time global energy companies have eyed Somalia; several major players were active there before the 1991 civil war. However, instability forced them to exit, leaving much of Somalia’s hydrocarbon wealth unexplored. Now, with a semblance of stability returning and new regulations in place—such as the 2020 petroleum law and offshore licensing framework—Turkey is seizing the opportunity.
Source: Map of offshore SE Somalia provinces and tectonic elements
Turkey’s broader energy ambitions are not limited to Somalia alone. Its exploration ventures also extend to the Eastern Mediterranean, where it has aggressively pursued drilling rights despite disputes with Greece and Cyprus. Turkey’s strategy is not just about securing energy; it’s about positioning itself as a central hub for oil and gas in the region. By expanding its presence in Somalia, Turkey can diversify its sources beyond the contested Mediterranean basin and reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint where a significant percentage of its current energy imports flow through. This is crucial for Turkey as any conflict or disruption in that area, particularly with Iran’s growing hostilities in the region, could jeopardize its energy security.
Somalia’s cooperation in this venture aligns with its own economic aspirations. The Somali government views this partnership as a potential economic catalyst. With a revenue-sharing framework in place, the Somali government hopes to benefit economically even before commercial discoveries are confirmed. The structure of agreements, which includes upfront bonus payments and royalties, ensures that Somalia begins to see financial returns early on. The potential for these energy reserves to attract further international investment is significant, offering Somalia a pathway to economic recovery and development.
From Turkey’s perspective, the Somalia exploration is a calculated risk. While the region offers immense potential, the technical and political challenges remain substantial. Many of Somalia’s offshore blocks are in deep water, which presents both logistical and technological challenges, particularly for a country like Turkey that is still building its offshore capabilities. Nevertheless, the Turkish government has heavily invested in enhancing its energy technology. The Sakarya gas field discovery in the Black Sea is a testament to Turkey’s growing expertise and commitment to building its energy independence.
Furthermore, Turkey’s activity in Somalia isn’t isolated from its broader geopolitical ambitions. By developing new energy corridors in the Horn of Africa, Turkey is expanding its influence in a region traditionally dominated by Western and Middle Eastern powers. This is part of Turkey’s broader goal of establishing itself as a regional power. It not only seeks to secure energy resources but also aims to strengthen diplomatic ties, provide aid, and build military bases—like the one Turkey operates in Mogadishu—enhancing its foothold and soft power in Africa.
The potential oil reserves in Somalia could also serve as a bargaining chip for Turkey in its complex relations with Europe. Turkey has long sought to be a central energy hub between Europe and the Middle East, and the discovery and development of new resources outside the traditional hotspots of the Mediterranean could give Ankara more leverage in its negotiations with European countries, particularly as they seek to diversify away from Russian hydrocarbons. By presenting itself as a stable and reliable energy partner, Turkey hopes to strengthen its ties with Europe, counterbalancing its heavy dependence on Russia for energy imports. Turkey’s expanding exploration activities highlight the importance it places on the energy sector for its national development strategy. The Mediterranean region, notably Cyprus and the broader Levant Basin, remains central to Turkey’s efforts, but the involvement in Somalia shows that Ankara is not putting all its eggs in one basket. Recent discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean have proven to be contentious, with disputes escalating between Turkey and other regional players. By venturing into Somalia, Turkey demonstrates a willingness to pursue alternative energy avenues and reduce geopolitical friction in the Mediterranean. Additionally, the Jask terminal development by Iran is an example of how regional players, including Turkey, are strategizing to bypass potential chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. Somalia’s offshore blocks provide Turkey a less politically fraught and more secure route for its future oil and gas supplies. As the region stabilizes, and Turkey builds on its agreements with Somalia, we might see Ankara’s energy strategy increasingly shift towards African partnerships. This would not only diversify its supply but also strengthen its position as a key energy player across two continents.
In the end, Turkey’s exploration off Somalia’s coast is more than just an energy project. It’s a calculated move that intertwines energy needs, geopolitical strategy, and long-term economic ambitions. The outcome of this venture could significantly influence not only Turkey’s energy landscape but also its regional influence and economic partnerships. The success of the project will depend on Turkey’s ability to navigate the technical challenges and Somalia’s political landscape, but if it pays off, it could be a game-changer for both nations.
