If there is one question that will determine the future not of the global oil markets but also the economy at large, that is how long the OPEC+ cuts will last. Also, the developments in the U.S. oil and gas sector after Trump is another factor that is going to set the tone for rest of 2025. This update covers both and much more!!!
1. MMV: What is happening in the oil markets? – PREMIUM
This week we will take stock of the latest developments in the global oil markets in general and US shale in particular. The overall story for oil markets going into 2025 remains the same. There has been consistent concerns regarding a growth in oil demand which closely depends upon the economic recovery. Many indicators continue to flash warning signs – you can read more about them in our weekly coverage known as Market Sentiment Tracker. Inventories are increasing, shale sector face the specter of lower oil prices.
Read the article above to learn about this in more detail.
2. PRIMARY VISION INSIGHTS – ENTERPRISE
Energy markets remain range bound, but maintaining their volatile shifts between $71-$76. There was a strong bounce off the lows following the Israel strike against Iran, but this has since cooled off keeping us between $72-$73. We expect the market to average the $71-$76 range to hold through the end of the year with the average being about $73. The U.S consumer continues to get pummeled with higher prices and more struggles across the board. Credit card debt rose by $24 BILLION in Q3 2024 and hit $1.17 TRILLION, a new record.The concerns in the market are only getting bigger as U.S. bond auctions weaken further driving up yields.
3. RPC’s Perspective: Q3 Takeaways – PREMIUM
RES’s management observes a headwind in the pressure-pumping pricing because the spot and semi-dedicated market remain oversupplied while the company’s peers choose to maintain utilization. RES’s marketed frac spread count has declined from approximately 10-11 a year ago. However, it has rebalanced its portfolio mix and has upgraded its frac spread in the past year. Read more of this brilliant analysis by Avik Chowdhury.
4. How Long Will the OPEC+ Cuts Last? – FREE
If there was a movie on global oil markets the most significant storyline would be that of the OPEC+ production. Much hinges on the lever that can millions of barrels to an already well-supplied (read: over-supplied) market. Currently, the 23-member group, that pumps around 41% of global oil production, has extended their production cuts until the end of 2024. But the prices haven’t stabilized (mostly because of two factors a) rising non-OPEC production b) slow global demand). Therefore, the billion-dollar question is how long can the cuts last?
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