A Note: It has been a while that we have spoken about the fact that what exactly is our Market Sentiment Tracker and why is it important? Robert Shiller, a Nobel Laureate and founder of the Case-Shiller Index, speaks about the importance of narratives in his book Narrative Economics. He provides evidence on how narratives and stories essentially lead to actual events! The inflation expectation index is a case in point. Therefore, my intention with the MST is the same that of Robert Shiller to “‘improve people’s ability to anticipate and deal with major economic events, such as depressions, recessions, or secular (that is long-term) stagnation, by encouraging them to identify and incorporate into their thinking the economic narratives that help to define these events”. Our MST tracks important news and developments coming out of China, U.S. and Eurozone so that our readers can anticipate better and be more informed. Now, let’s discuss the MST for U.S. and China.
The US economy shows resilience as S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI jumped to 56.6 in December, indicating robust economic activity. Private sector employment rebounded after five months of stagnation, signaling improved labor market conditions. Personal incomes surged by $147.4 billion in October, doubling the gains from September, further fueling consumer confidence. Economic growth clocked a solid 3.3% annualized rate in the final quarter, highlighting underlying economic strength. However, manufacturing remains a weak spot, hitting a three-month low, with dampened optimism in the factory sector.
China’s industrial output rose 5.4% year-on-year in November, outpacing the previous month’s growth. Anticipated macroeconomic measures, including potential reductions in the RRR and loan prime rates in 2025, aim to bolster economic stability. However, retail sales grew at just 3.0% in November, the slowest pace in three months, indicating fragile consumer demand. Fixed asset investment also slightly lagged expectations, expanding 3.3% year-on-year for January-November.
