Keeping in line with the last week’s theme, in this week’s Monday Macro View*, we explore how geology alone can’t explain well performance in 2025. Refracs, completion design, capital efficiency, and long-term returns now carry as much weight as IP30s or lateral length. Operators are reclassifying what Tier 1 means—not just where the best rock is, but where the best value lies. Our Frac Operator Monitor** shows that performance gains are coming not just from core acreage, but from smarter deployment of equipment and capital.
This reevaluation of quality isn’t limited to geology. In our Market Sentiment Tracker*, we find that the global economic foundation supporting oil demand is beginning to shift under pressure: the U.S. is slowing under the weight of weak final sales and rising inventories, while Europe remains stuck in a policy-induced stall. China, which had offered a glimmer of stability, is now flashing warning signs as its PMI dips and export demand softens. What was once a synchronized recovery story is becoming a tale of regional dislocation—and that’s impacting oil demand expectations.
This week’s Take Threes on ProFrac* and Nine Energy* reinforce the same theme: Q1 execution was solid, but Q2 looks increasingly clouded by pricing pressure, demand volatility, and customer discipline. ProFrac posted strong pump hour and proppant growth, but is anticipating a softer Q2 with more white space. Nine Energy managed to boost revenues and margins, driven by cementing and coiled tubing, but flagged tariffs and Permian softness as potential drags going forward. These reports show that even operational strength is subject to macro conditions, and capital discipline is becoming a survival trait, not a choice.
Finally, in our Free Read, we ask: Why are Iraq and Kazakhstan overproducing? Their behavior reflects structural pressures—budgetary dependence, fractured governance, PSA contracts—not simply opportunism. As more OPEC+ members face similar dilemmas, quota discipline looks increasingly unsustainable. If this trend continues, the alliance risks losing credibility—and control over prices.
In a market shaped by erosion of old labels and rise of new risks, staying ahead means tracking the right signals. That’s exactly what we do at Primary Vision—through data, not guesswork.
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