Monday Macro View: What is the connection between Frac Job Count and OPEC’s production? Enterprise Subscribers

A few months ago, I explored the evolving relationship between WTI crude prices and the U.S. Frac Spread Count (FSC), highlighting how operator behavior was beginning to diverge from traditional price cues. But if FSC offered early signals of operational direction, the Frac Job Count (FJC) provides a clearer and more direct read on U.S. oil supply—the most responsive and strategically significant component of non-OPEC output. With a structurally constrained OPEC+ production and growing geopolitical risk, the trajectory of U.S. shale has become the single most important swing factor in the 2025–2026 supply balance. This article intends to look at the historic relation between oil prices and its impact on FJC and how it will unfold moving forward.