Monday Macro View: How Much Longer Can the Uinta Hold On? Enterprise Subscribers

The Uinta Basin isn’t often the center of industry attention, but it should be—because what’s happening there right now is a small but sharp case study in how U.S. shale is evolving under logistical constraint, capital discipline, and service sector reprioritization. This article takes a closer look at the Uinta not because it’s booming, but precisely because its trajectory has become murky. We’re going to walk through a series of primary indicators—using our proprietary Frac Spread Count (FSC) and HHP data—to understand what direction this basin is really headed, and whether recent production stability is sustainable or misleading.

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What makes Uinta different isn’t just geology—it’s the crude itself. This basin produces a waxy, paraffinic oil that solidifies below 95°F, which means you can’t move it without heated trucks, insulated tanks, or railcars designed for high pour-point barrels. There’s no pipeline out of the basin for this kind of crude, and refiners capable of handling it are limited to select markets on the Gulf Coast and West Coast. That logistical friction—built into every barrel—raises transport costs, narrows margins, and keeps the basin at a structural disadvantage when oil prices fall or spreads compress. It’s a key reason why the Uinta has always struggled to hold fleet capacity during broader market pullbacks.

Let’s start with why this matters. In December 2024, Uinta Basin production was led by five operators—SM Energy, FourPoint, Uinta Wax, Crescent, and Scout—with SM alone producing nearly 45,000 barrels per day. That’s not small for a basin many still consider marginal. Together, they’re holding up volumes that have real implications for regional takeaway, waxy crude blending, and even Gulf Coast refinery scheduling. So if activity begins to fall off, the effects ripple out fast.

Despite a strong pace of well completions in 2024—led by Ovintiv with over 140 wells—the production data tells a more tempered story. While the Uinta Basin still accounts for over 90% of Utah’s oil output , the upward trend in production appears to have plateaued, with recent months showing signs of flattening or even slight decline. This disconnect suggests that completions alone aren’t translating into proportional output gains, likely due to infrastructure constraints, waxy crude handling issues, or a shift toward lower productivity zones. It reinforces the idea that the basin’s growth isn’t being held back by drilling appetite, but by what happens after the well is completed.

Now to the first red flag: the service side isn’t deteriorating—but it’s not expanding either. Our updated HHP snapshot shows total allocated horsepower in the Uinta-Piceance Basin held steady at 256,600 in both Q3 and Q4 2024. ProFrac maintained 97,560 HHP, Liberty Oilfield Services held firm at 62,500 HHP, and Calfrac stayed active with 96,600 HHP. STEP Energy Services continues to operate in the basin, but through coiled tubing, not active frac spreads. So while there’s been no major exit, there’s also no fresh capacity coming in. It’s a sign of restraint rather than retreat—operators and service providers are holding the line, but not leaning in. And in a basin already running on tight margins and thin takeaway, that stasis speaks volumes.

Let’s move to activity trends to understand how that the stagnant HHP is—or isn’t—affecting work on the ground. In our Frac Operator Monitor, we pulled the Frac Spread Count data for three of the top Uinta-focused operators: Uinta Wax, Scout Energy, and SM Energy. This gives us a live, time-series view of how many active spreads they’re running each month and what’s expected in the months ahead.

For Uinta Wax, the spread count has remained low and intermittent throughout 2022 and 2023, rarely breaking past 2–3 active spreads, and often dropping to zero. But what matters is the pattern ahead. The forecast into 2025 shows a very modest uptick in spread count—but one that’s deeply volatile and seasonal. This suggests that Uinta Wax is only partially committing to sustained completion activity, perhaps based on internal hedges or takeaway availability. There’s no ramp-up coming—just cautious, measured use of services when needed. Scout Energy Partners tells a similar story, though even more erratic. The 2023-2024 curve shows bursts of spread activity—3 to 4 spreads at a time—followed by weeks of complete standstill. The spread forecast into 2025 reflects high volatility, with activity trending downward overall. Again, this supports the idea that operators in Uinta are not running full-cycle programs. They’re dipping in and out. That kind of behavior can sustain production for a while, but it doesn’t build momentum. And eventually, decline curves win.

SCOUT ENERGY PARTNERS

Now let’s zoom out and compare that to what the entire basin is working with in terms of active fleets. Our data shows only 4 spreads were operating in Uinta-Piceance in Q4 2024. That’s the lowest among all oil-weighted basins in the U.S.—less than Powder River, less than the Gulf Coast. From a service intensity standpoint, this is now a bare-bones play. And it’s important to pause here. Because even with decent operator-level oil volumes, the infrastructure and investment backing the basin are thinning. Without new HHP deployment or spread reactivation, there's only so long you can stretch DUCs and maintain output through opportunistic completions.

That brings us to a subtle but critical point. The reason production hasn’t collapsed yet is likely due to prior completions and strategic pacing of high-graded wells. But the underlying inputs—spread count, HHP availability, job count—are all deteriorating or stagnating. This makes the recent production performance less of a sign of basin strength and more of a delayed signal. The lag is real, but it won’t last forever.

So where does that leave us? The Uinta Basin isn’t dead, but it’s in a fragile equilibrium. Operator volumes are still real, but activity patterns suggest no one is committing to long-term scale-up. Service providers have moved out, leaving limited HHP behind. Spread counts are bouncing rather than building. If anything changes—pricing, takeaway, regulations—the current production levels could unravel quickly.

And right now, those changes are already underway. WTI has slipped into the low 60s, and differentials for waxy crudes are widening again. At the same time, U.S. output is holding steady above 13.1 million b/d, pushing global balances deeper into surplus. That’s not the kind of macro setup where Uinta wins. Refiners don’t need to chase off-spec barrels. Midstream developers don’t need to fast-track regional expansions. And operators don’t need to lean into a basin that penalizes both flow and price.

If these trends persist, Uinta will struggle to justify even its current completion volumes. The horsepower won’t return unless margins do—and the margins won’t return unless takeaway tightens or oil rebounds. Until then, this basin is in silent retreat. And it’s exactly the kind of strategic blind spot that gets missed until the decline is already baked in.

This isn’t about bearishness. It’s about clarity. The data from FSC, and HHP all point to a basin where the margin for error is shrinking. And as we head into mid-2025, the question is no longer whether the Uinta has potential—but whether there’s anyone still willing to unlock it at scale.