The oil and gas sector has entered 2025 facing a difficult question: is this a moment of temporary adjustment—or are we watching a broader structural deterioration? According to the IEA’s latest World Energy Investment report, global upstream investment in oil and gas is set to fall by 4% this year—the first decline since 2020. Oil investment alone is projected to drop by over 6%, with sharp pullbacks in U.S. shale leading the contraction. Refinery investment is falling to decade lows. But data from Canada, Guyana, Brazil and especially the U.S. indicate stability if not growth.
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