There has been no shortage of conjecture lately around U.S. shale production—whether its trajectory is flattening, whether tight oil growth is stalling, and whether the sector has entered a structural slowdown. The latest editions of the EIA’s July STEO and the Dallas Fed Energy Survey for Q2 2025 appear to feed that sentiment. But before we accept this thesis at face value, it’s worth remembering what recent history actually shows. U.S. crude oil production rose from around 11.3 million barrels per day in 2021 to a record of 13.4 million barrels per day in Q2 2025. Even with falling rig counts and well completions, productivity gains and a leaner completions cycle drove barrels higher. What’s changed now is the EIA’s concern that those productivity tailwinds may not be enough. In 1H 2025, U.S. producers completed just over 5,100 wells in the Lower 48—the lowest number for a first half since 2021. The agency now expects completions would need to exceed 5,400 in 2H 2025 to match last year’s total, something it implicitly sees as unlikely. That’s why it now forecasts U.S. crude production to plateau, and eventually decline toward 13.3 million bpd by end-2026. This is a notable shift in tone, especially given that as recently as January, EIA models were forecasting 13.6–13.7 million bpd by next year.
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