Enterprise Subscribers: Decoding FSC and FJC by Shale Basin

In this week's Monday Macro View I want to dig further into our FSC and FJC data and talk about it in terms of Shale basins. Doing so reveals some very interesting trends and insights that can be extremely helpful for our readers trying to trace the trajectory of U.S oil in particular and global oil markets in general.

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From early January to late July 2025, the Frac Spread Count (FSC) reveals a clear cyclical pattern across key U.S. shale basins. The year opened with 201 active spreads in the week of January 3rd, driven by strong activity in the Permian (118 spreads), Western Gulf (20), and Williston (16). The Permian clearly stood out in the first quarter, holding firm above 114 spreads through mid-March. This aligns with historical patterns where operators front-load completions post-holidays to take advantage of favorable weather and budget resets. By March 21, FSC peaked at 215, reflecting widespread completions push across regions. Permian volumes remained strong at 119, while Western Gulf and Williston each held 21 and 15 respectively. Activity across basins like Appalachian, Denver, and Anadarko also nudged higher, contributing to this broad-based increase. But following this peak, the downtrend begins subtly. By April 25, FSC dips to 205—a moderate decline—but Permian starts showing stress, falling to 108. This early signal of a slowdown in the Permian proved prescient.

The steepest decline emerges post-May. By the week ending June 27, national FSC dropped to 176, led by a sharp reduction in Permian spreads, down to just 87. This fall represents a 32% decline from the March peak. Even supportive basins like Western Gulf and Williston see activity cool, though more gradually. Notably, the Eastern basins like Appalachian and Denver remain relatively stable, hovering around 14-16 spreads through most of Q2 and Q3. This stability masks the structural softness in completions, as national totals fall below 170 by late July.

By July 25, FSC hits 168—back to levels not seen since mid-2022. The Permian falls further to 82, confirming sustained pullback in the most prolific shale region. The steep decline in FSC post-May, particularly in the Permian, isn’t a signal of collapsing production or an operational freeze—it’s a reflection of changing efficiency dynamics. As we noted in our previous articl e, EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report showed that while national frac spread count fell 18% from March to July, Permian completions barely moved, down just 3% from 460 to 445. It’s also reflective of the typical summer lull, but the pace and depth of the decline—especially in the Permian—is sharper than seasonal norms. While Anadarko and Appalachian seem to hold ground, it's not enough to offset the decline in the larger basins. This trend lays the groundwork for a deeper exploration into how Frac Job Count is reacting to this shift and whether the decline in FSC is yet translating into a corresponding drop in actual completions.

Frac Job Count - Primary Vision's Forecasts

Our weekly report also shows that the Appalachian basin has a consistent and moderate level of completion activity throughout the observed period (Jan 2025 - July 2025). Starting the year around 9.9 jobs, the basin sees steady weekly increments, peaking at over 13.4 jobs by early May. The observed values remain close to the model’s PVFM forecasts, often sitting well within the 80% and 95% confidence intervals. Notably, even during the summer slowdown seen elsewhere, Appalachia holds relatively firm with actual completions hovering near forecast expectations in July and August, before gradually easing to 11.9 by mid-September. This stability aligns with what we saw in the FSC data—Appalachian spreads remained steady in the 13–16 range, suggesting that completions in this basin are structurally less volatile and tied to more programmatic operations.

Source: Efracs - Frac Job Forecast: Appalachian, Forecasting Horizon: 52 weeks

The Permian, by contrast, demonstrates much higher levels of completion activity, beginning the year at around 87 jobs and rising to above 103 by mid-April. Even as the FSC for the Permian collapsed post-March—from 119 to just 82—the job count stayed elevated, only softening mildly in the weeks that followed. By July, weekly completions still ranged around 100, and even into September they stayed above 91. The PVFM model tracks this remarkably well, with actual completions falling within or close to forecast bounds throughout the entire period. This reinforces our earlier insight: the Permian's production engine continued operating near full capacity despite falling frac spreads. The discrepancy between fewer tools and stable output is confirmed again here, proving that completions in the Permian have effectively decoupled from FSC. Operators appear to be strategically concentrating efforts in higher-yield zones or relying on DUC drawdowns to maintain output.

In the Western Gulf, the job count data presents a slightly noisier picture. Completions began around 28 in January, increased to above 32 in March and early April, and then stayed mostly in the 29–31 range through August. While there are minor oscillations—especially a notable dip to 25.4 in mid-September—the overall trend holds within model forecasts, suggesting that the basin is relatively stable but more reactive to broader field-level adjustments. In FSC terms, Western Gulf activity held relatively steady between 20–21 spreads until June, when it tapered slightly to 17–19. Yet the completions data doesn’t show a sharp drop—again suggesting that efficiency gains or targeted operations helped sustain output. The PVFM model's projections held up well here too, slightly under-predicting during peak spring months, but quickly adjusting by summer.

Taken together, these basin-level observations reinforce the idea that the fall in national FSC hasn’t led to a proportional decline in completions. The model forecasts across all three basins—Appalachian, Permian, and Western Gulf—have performed strongly, with the majority of actuals falling within forecast confidence intervals. In the Permian especially, where the most dramatic FSC reductions were seen, completions remained strong, confirming our thesis that operators are doing more with fewer resources. This basin-by-basin breakdown not only validates the robustness of our forecasting framework but also confirms that Primary Vision's real-time data and forward modeling provide accurate, actionable signals even during operational slowdowns.