What’s Happening in the Markets?

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After OPEC+ struck their agreement (finally!) oil prices took a nose dive falling below its recent highs, breaking $70s entering higher $60s. However, after a day or two prices were once again back to (almost) their previous highs. I personally believe that the extraordinary bullishness has received a reality check and it may stablize expectations. However, as I highlighted in one of my recent articles , there remains other bearish elements as well that may (or may not) surface soon.

That said, there are many other issues that may effect not only the global commodity and financial markets but also geopolitics and international relations. Take for example the floods in China and India, two of the world's most populous countries, significant consumers of commodities and very relevant to global agriculture as well. More than 125 people have died in India where torrential rains have triggered landslides whereas in China multiple deaths have been reported in various parts of the country.

China has received an extraordinary amount of rain; in three day In three days the city got an annual amount! The People's Liberation Army has warned that Yihetan dam may collapse.

China is preparing for a huge inlfow….and the as it continues to pur down, it will only accelarate and going to be more than the outflow. We may expect big shift in inflows as shown below in the chart.

All of this will adversely impact agriculture land destroying not only corn but soy beans too. This much water causes saturation and submerges your crop which is devastating for corn crops. There is going to be another issue too such as beans, these provines (as shown in the chart below) are also big producers of beans too.

Swing buying from the U.S. will also be affeced however, so far the U.S. corn conditions are fairly stable but Spring Wheat condtions are worsening. Northern part and western part of U.S. are facing drought too (as the graph below shows) abnormally dry weathers.

All of this will worsen the already excrutiating food price inflation that is causing protests and many political parties are and will face the music as a result of whatever is happening lately. The following chart shows the exorbitant rise in food prices.

In other news: Iran is seeing anohter bout of protests which has gone worse with reports of several deaths. IRGC has used live ammuniation according as per reports to break up proetests. Ahwaiz, western part of country are lcoated where most oil is and it is also one of the resource richest palces in the world. These people are Arabs, not persians that mostly Iran is, Arabs make only 2 percent and this dynamic is very important to understand as Mark explains in this video . These individuals live in squalor..they are experiencing massive water shortages, creating protests.

There is more anger towards the regime. Lot of Arab population lives on oil patch next to Iraq spilling over into their countries too. People in Lorestan part of have started chanting in suport of poeple in Kuzestan.

So all in all matters at the geopolitical front are getting very intense and interesting. Inflation is picking up. Shadow of Stagflation is lurking nigh. Let's wait and see. [/ihc-hide-content]

By Osama Rizvi; Energy Analyst at Primary Vision Network

What’s Happening in the Markets?

Econ: Floods and Food, Wages and Inflation, India Headwinds and Chinese Debt

OUR LONG AWAITED FRAC SPREAD COUNT MARKET REPORT IS HERE!

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What’s Happening in the Markets?

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Econ: Floods and Food, Wages and Inflation, India Headwinds and Chinese Debt

OUR LONG AWAITED FRAC SPREAD COUNT MARKET REPORT IS HERE!

Related Posts

Market Sentiment Tracker: What’s Behind the Drop in U.S. Jobs?

SLB’s Perspective in Q2: KEY Takeaways

Market Sentiment Tracker: Ceasefire Relief, But No Rally in Reality

Market Sentiment Tracker: Growth, inflation and policy shifts

Market Sentiment Tracker: Is China’s economy improving?

Monday Macro View: Will U.S. oil production increase further?

OUR LONG AWAITED FRAC SPREAD COUNT MARKET REPORT IS HERE!

CONTACT

PARTNERS

TRUSTED SITES

SOCIAL NETWORKS

POLICIES

Sourcing Primary Vision

Privacy Policy

Terms of Use