Primary Vision Insights – Enterprise Subscribers

The oil markets have seen a strong spike to start the year with the recent surge driven by renewed sanctions on Russian crude. There has been a big concern around production growth expectations in “non-OPEC” regions. There’s more concern now around the estimates in Latin America and the U.S. as we came into 2025. We expect to see some pressure to production, but the bigger issue remains demand as we head into 2025. China has seen some significant structural demand declines that is very real, and it will likely only get worse throughout the rest of the 2020’s. Brent prices at the current levels is a huge hit to people’s balance sheets- especially emerging markets. The US Dollar and crude moving higher is a double whammy for many Emerging Markets, and at these prices, many developed markets. In the near term, we will see Brent prices a bit higher in the $73-$78 range, but I think you will see more pressure develop throughout Q2/Q3 on the global economic level. This will pull down pricing- especially as refined product prices get pushed higher hitting the consumer again.