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Market Sentiment Tracker: U.S. Economy Poised for a Soft Landing?

Osama Rizvi by Osama Rizvi
December 10, 2024
in Market Trends
0
Market Sentiment Tracker: U.S. Economy Poised for a Soft Landing?

U.S. and the World

The U.S. economy looks strong. On the positive side, job creation remains solid, with an average of 173,000 new jobs per month since September and a notable 227,000 jobs added in November. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, rose to 74.0 from 71.8, driven by robust holiday spending.

Revolving credit surged at a 13.9% annual rate, the fastest in eight months, signaling heightened consumer reliance on debt. However, concerns persist as corporate debt-to-earnings ratios hover at record highs. Interest costs remain unyielding, and global debt ballooned by $12 trillion in three quarters. The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 326%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, reflecting broader fiscal challenges.

China

China’s exports surged by 6.7% year-on-year in November, with shipments to the U.S. rising 8%, signaling strong external demand. Manufacturing and services PMI data suggest steady activity. Foreign-exchange reserves expanded by $4.8 billion, reaching $3.266 trillion. Yet, the domestic picture is less rosy. Producer prices fell 2.5% in October, and home sales at top developers plummeted 6.9%, underscoring tepid domestic confidence. While external trade shows resilience, China’s internal economic dynamics signal fragility.

Eurozone

The Eurozone’s GDP growth inched up marginally in Q3, with Spain growing by 0.8% and France by 0.4%. However, exports declined 1.5%, reflecting weakening demand. Germany’s GDP eked out a 0.1% gain, missing expectations, while Italy’s manufacturing struggles weigh on sentiment. The Netherlands’ economy contracted by 0.8%, adding to regional disparities. Overall, the Eurozone is grappling with a fragile recovery, as declining exports and industrial sluggishness offset modest gains.


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